Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8426

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.017; held-out +0.04 p 0.926). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8425, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8426
    24 Oct 2026, 07:44 UTC

    ENPP4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionENPP4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb9432249ff9b325d

    discovery+0.76 p=0.017 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.926 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.017; held-out +0.04 p 0.926)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    aa2fd0522be548c199300056…
    follows 21bfb85346fe…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8426: ENPP4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ENPP4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.