Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0063

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 62, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0063
    16 Oct 2026, 15:46 UTC

    NDUFV2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNDUFV2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered10bae4962612d003

    discovery+0.08 p=0.597 n=42

    replication+0.07 p=0.656 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.597)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fbb89569ef1bdfee09d7f100…
    follows a20b261f7e28…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0063: NDUFV2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.602, n 84), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.27. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.01 (p 0.900, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.859, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.729, n 75). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.49 (p 2.1e-6, n 84) vs +0.06 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
resilience beats braak for NDUFV2 in dopamine neurons: -0.55 (p 0.0048, n 55). proposing resilience.

follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up NDUFV2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.48 p 6.3e-6 (needs p < 0.0056)
follow-up NDUFV2 · dopamine neurons · resilience: ventral tegmental area +0.07 p 0.676 (needs p < 0.0050)