Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0064

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.17, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 63, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0064
    16 Oct 2026, 15:47 UTC

    NDUFV2

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionNDUFV2 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registeredafedcca4792f781b

    discovery-0.17 p=1.000 n=26

    replication-0.66 p=0.0054 n=29

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.17, p 1.000)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5f758d7f3f5d478205a31a90…
    follows fbb89569ef1b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0064: NDUFV2 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.55 (p 0.0048, n 55), 95% CI -0.71 to -0.34. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.52 (p 0.0085, n 55). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.0085, n 55). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.56 (p 0.0056, n 46). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for NDUFV2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.