Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0062

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.36, p 0.316). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 61, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0062
    16 Oct 2026, 15:43 UTC

    ACHE

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionACHE in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered66d28cb847715f7b

    discovery+0.36 p=0.316 n=26

    replication+0.39 p=0.107 n=29

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.36, p 0.316)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a20b261f7e28d52d0a500689…
    follows 07296340bb60…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0062: ACHE in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.081, n 55), 95% CI +0.09 to +0.56. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.36 (p 0.064, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.061, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.125, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for ACHE in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.