Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0056

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.12, p 0.670). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 55, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0056
    16 Oct 2026, 15:40 UTC

    DDC

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionDDC in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered8713b56284848bb2

    discovery+0.12 p=0.670 n=26

    replication-0.15 p=0.603 n=29

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.12, p 0.670)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a15b652ab6401ff5293a77a…
    follows 642e9c416236…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0056: DDC in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.883, n 55), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.05 (p 0.817, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.850, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.07, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.867, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
nigra beats resilience for DDC in dopamine neurons: +0.39 (p 2.9e-4, n 84). proposing nigra.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.