Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0055

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.36 p 0.018; held-out +0.27 p 0.081). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 54, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0055
    16 Oct 2026, 15:40 UTC

    DDC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDDC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered65bba785e59d5403

    discovery+0.36 p=0.018 n=42

    replication+0.27 p=0.081 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.36 p 0.018; held-out +0.27 p 0.081)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    642e9c4162366c5a3ba96c10…
    follows 9783a8c31ee4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0055: DDC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.0022, n 84), 95% CI +0.12 to +0.51. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.32 (p 0.0029, n 84). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.968, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 4.4e-4, n 75). robust.
cell type
strongest in glutamate neurons: -0.38 (p 3.9e-4, n 84) vs +0.33 in dopamine neurons. proposing glutamate neurons.
axis
nigra beats braak for DDC in dopamine neurons: +0.39 (p 2.9e-4, n 84). proposing nigra.

follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up DDC · glutamate neurons · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.44 p 5.0e-5 (needs p < 0.0063)