Six readers
| reader | found | score |
|---|---|---|
| genetics Open Targets | no genetic evidence; overall 0.63 from other evidence | 0.00 |
| cell type Human Protein Atlas | enriched in the midbrain (180 nTPM), where the nigral dopamine neurons sit | 0.90 |
| chemistry Open Targets | compounds already reach it: carbidopa, eladocagene exuparvovec, foscarbidopa +1 | 1.00 |
| trials ClinicalTrials.gov | 233 Parkinson's trials, 6 stopped | 0.90 |
| literature PubMed | 167 Parkinson's papers of 3,580 | 0.33 |
| pathways Reactome | 2 pathways; mostly dopamine synapse | 1.00 |
No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 11450
Earlier readings: 2026-10-26 0.55; 2026-10-25 0.55; 2026-10-24 0.55; 2026-10-23 0.54.
Sealed predictions
- DDC in dopamine neurons, braak-0.26 (p 0.493) → -0.20 (p 0.602)receipt 0542
- DDC in dopamine neurons, resilience+0.12 (p 0.670) → -0.15 (p 0.603)receipt 0056
- DDC in dopamine neurons, braak+0.36 (p 0.018) → +0.27 (p 0.081)receipt 0055
In the sealed studies
Swarm cases
receipt 0542: DDC in dopamine neurons, braak
- power
- full sample -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
- confounder
- adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). does not hold up.
- composition
- dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). not the mix.
- skeptic
- leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). fragile.
- cell type
- no other cell group does better.
- axis
- no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DDC in dopamine neurons.
case closed: nothing better to follow up.
receipt 0056: DDC in dopamine neurons, resilience
- power
- full sample -0.03 (p 0.883, n 55), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
- confounder
- adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.05 (p 0.817, n 55). does not hold up.
- composition
- dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.850, n 55). could be the mix.
- skeptic
- leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.07, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.867, n 46). fragile.
- cell type
- no other cell group does better.
- axis
- nigra beats resilience for DDC in dopamine neurons: +0.39 (p 2.9e-4, n 84). proposing nigra.
case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.
receipt 0055: DDC in dopamine neurons, braak
- power
- full sample +0.33 (p 0.0022, n 84), 95% CI +0.12 to +0.51. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
- confounder
- adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.32 (p 0.0029, n 84). holds up.
- composition
- dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.968, n 84). could be the mix.
- skeptic
- leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 4.4e-4, n 75). robust.
- cell type
- strongest in glutamate neurons: -0.38 (p 3.9e-4, n 84) vs +0.33 in dopamine neurons. proposing glutamate neurons.
- axis
- nigra beats braak for DDC in dopamine neurons: +0.39 (p 2.9e-4, n 84). proposing nigra.
follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up DDC · glutamate neurons · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.44 p 5.0e-5 (needs p < 0.0063)
Receipts
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