Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0198

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.247). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 197, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0198
    16 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC

    SCN11A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCN11A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5765b2014027383e

    discovery+0.43 p=0.247 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.247)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9f8728722bea1eec00e900f6…
    follows 3b88bd5246e0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0198: SCN11A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN11A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.