Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0197

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.656). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 196, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0197
    16 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC

    SCN11A

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSCN11A in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbb37b35e4b738284

    discovery-0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.656)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3b88bd5246e0e7cec67940f3…
    follows 06b1c5d698ca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0197: SCN11A in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN11A in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.