Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0099

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.270). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 98, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0099
    16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

    ITPKB

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionITPKB in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1b86fddc2dc58909

    discovery-0.17 p=0.270 n=42

    replication-0.08 p=0.629 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.270)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2837902e8bba91e8636569ae…
    follows eca726478704…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0099: ITPKB in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.302, n 84), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.10. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.05 (p 0.658, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.26 (p 0.016); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.486, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.269, n 75). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ITPKB in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.