Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0100

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.13, p 0.653). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 99, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0100
    16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

    ITPKB

    astrocytes, resilience

    predictionITPKB in astrocytes differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered698f226cccbd60a4

    discovery-0.13 p=0.653 n=28

    replication-0.21 p=0.448 n=27

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.13, p 0.653)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0aba3edce0323f4d08fe95c0…
    follows 2837902e8bba…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0100: ITPKB in astrocytes, resilience

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.474, n 55), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.11 (p 0.570, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.34 (p 0.084); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.283, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.479, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for ITPKB in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.