Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9807

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.389). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9806, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9807
    25 Oct 2026, 14:21 UTC

    HEPH

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionHEPH in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered25f8533b4248e392

    discovery-0.33 p=0.389 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.571 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.389)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    60458998bf1e3d74c43d6b5a…
    follows 6c4882c21e21…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9807: HEPH in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HEPH in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.