Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9789

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.419). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9788, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9789
    25 Oct 2026, 13:56 UTC

    KIF21B

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionKIF21B in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede4a9df2a05292939

    discovery-0.31 p=0.419 n=9

    replication+0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.419)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    11a0c5326dfaaae48d2a6da5…
    follows e0bdf7b587f3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9789: KIF21B in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.13, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KIF21B in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.