Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0938

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.060). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 937, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0938
    17 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC

    HCN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHCN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda159bd73f102a15e

    discovery-0.65 p=0.060 n=9

    replication-0.71 p=0.033 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.060)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ad3c39930daf3c78ddc4849b…
    follows 074bb2effa02…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0938: HCN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HCN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.