Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0088

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.518). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 87, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0088
    16 Oct 2026, 16:16 UTC

    GRIN3A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGRIN3A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0131eb98cd86b6be

    discovery+0.10 p=0.518 n=42

    replication-0.25 p=0.115 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.518)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a5ffc8a64d4f47385655468b…
    follows 70dfc7602378…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0088: GRIN3A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.637, n 84), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.16. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.06 (p 0.597, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.555, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.986, n 75). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRIN3A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.