Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8580

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.013; held-out -0.36 p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8579, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8580
    24 Oct 2026, 11:05 UTC

    MDM2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMDM2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddafc74724a846090

    discovery+0.78 p=0.013 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.013; held-out -0.36 p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    7c02a49e87e50ecf9a8c7e5d…
    follows aab8cb420e60…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8580: MDM2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MDM2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.