Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8280

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.153). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8279, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8280
    24 Oct 2026, 04:23 UTC

    FBXO45

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFBXO45 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered16ada847dc231cca

    discovery+0.52 p=0.153 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.153)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    978d1117c6d0e21752166b2a…
    follows 6d4f503db491…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8280: FBXO45 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.057, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.078, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.59, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FBXO45 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.