Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8232

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8231, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8232
    24 Oct 2026, 03:23 UTC

    SNCB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSNCB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbd6747e5a527c312

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c5d858c0cb4cb72506c4f9ed…
    follows a1162f2545d4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8232: SNCB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SNCB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.