Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8089

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.255). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8088, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8089
    24 Oct 2026, 00:52 UTC

    TMEM47

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM47 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4e9219a6837fc2fb

    discovery+0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.255)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b44d0d0e16d059e0787c5e5c…
    follows d66ec8b02d12…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8089: TMEM47 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM47 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.