Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8088

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.498). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8087, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8088
    24 Oct 2026, 00:52 UTC

    TMEM47

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTMEM47 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc152c216918bb7de

    discovery-0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.701 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.498)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d66ec8b02d129a9cb8810af9…
    follows 259fd248368b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8088: TMEM47 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.17, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM47 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.