Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7948

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7947, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7948
    23 Oct 2026, 21:42 UTC

    FOSB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFOSB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddad2e5bd21c4e7a5

    discovery-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ba042eb9c202e17a3ef05c73…
    follows 7c73021af579…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7948: FOSB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18) vs -0.38 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FOSB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.