Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7942

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.40 p 0.291). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7941, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7942
    23 Oct 2026, 21:33 UTC

    SCAMP5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCAMP5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb543ce67559146a4

    discovery-0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.291 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.042; held-out -0.40 p 0.291)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    4635d819cf1377213c8b60e5…
    follows d12dee91ef07…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7942: SCAMP5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18) vs -0.33 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCAMP5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SCAMP5 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.47 p 0.091 (needs p < 2.7e-4)