Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7677

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.150). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7676, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7677
    23 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC

    SPATA22

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSPATA22 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered241c5dd8803cc9f1

    discovery+0.52 p=0.150 n=9

    replication-0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.150)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    314f19b5e0452047d9d0155b…
    follows d6fc5fb9dd5d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7677: SPATA22 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPATA22 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.