Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7627

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.70 p 0.036; held-out +0.26 p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7626, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7627
    23 Oct 2026, 14:29 UTC

    C1R

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionC1R in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4157f6ba11b6e68c

    discovery-0.70 p=0.036 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.70 p 0.036; held-out +0.26 p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    13b8300c880730a19215af61…
    follows 5ccd461e8c74…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7627: C1R in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18) vs -0.17 in astrocytes. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C1R in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up C1R · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured