Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0076

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.07, p 0.788). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 75, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0076
    16 Oct 2026, 15:58 UTC

    BCHE

    oligodendrocytes, resilience

    predictionBCHE in oligodendrocytes differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registeredeebaa35f3e109d9a

    discovery+0.07 p=0.788 n=29

    replication+0.16 p=0.580 n=26

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.07, p 0.788)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2323f48725fd66338d2eb598…
    follows 705ff7cd0a81…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0076: BCHE in oligodendrocytes, resilience

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.514, n 55), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.14 (p 0.487, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.52 (p 0.0075); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.487, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.634, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for BCHE in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.