Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7474

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.910). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7473, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7474
    23 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC

    ATG9A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATG9A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddba6b99930b97338

    discovery+0.04 p=0.910 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.910)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4d1c4a1d3d99ad14efc53c6c…
    follows 1a3c59aae52d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7474: ATG9A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATG9A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.