Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7473

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.092). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7472, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7473
    23 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC

    ATG9A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionATG9A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered079edb46feaf5745

    discovery-0.59 p=0.092 n=9

    replication-0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.092)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1a3c59aae52daa4c2f866d72…
    follows f03b7133c94d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7473: ATG9A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.00. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATG9A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.