Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7401

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.262). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7400, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7401
    23 Oct 2026, 09:21 UTC

    PPP1R15A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP1R15A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered647a704cec8b8d18

    discovery-0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    replication-0.70 p=0.034 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.262)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    576e20b5d44e7a2b85c92f6b…
    follows e2750ceb6491…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7401: PPP1R15A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.071, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.71 (p 0.0011, n 18) vs -0.51 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP1R15A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PPP1R15A · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.52 p 0.062 (needs p < 2.9e-4)