Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7333

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.098). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7332, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7333
    23 Oct 2026, 07:53 UTC

    ADGRB1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADGRB1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddd62cd50dc9e3002

    discovery-0.59 p=0.098 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.098)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cf7b7b030a34bc8422f5d1d1…
    follows 3b9cb461f387…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7333: ADGRB1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADGRB1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.