Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7326

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7325, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7326
    23 Oct 2026, 07:44 UTC

    ANGPTL4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionANGPTL4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4fa79a85a39fa244

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.875 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cfb66cbe6f9d162f8d4d3a29…
    follows daad537582ac…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7326: ANGPTL4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.17, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANGPTL4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.