Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7204

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7203, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7204
    23 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC

    TNFRSF13C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNFRSF13C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfeb19b6570ca3ae6

    discovery-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.269 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    efa518055cf329ed6bfa72d1…
    follows fbd7704f42f8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7204: TNFRSF13C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFRSF13C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.