Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7203

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7202, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7203
    23 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC

    TNFRSF13C

    microglia, braak

    predictionTNFRSF13C in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda6452a4bde09d418

    discovery+0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fbd7704f42f813bf8248bcf5…
    follows d05367a55ef4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7203: TNFRSF13C in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFRSF13C in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.