Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7045

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7044, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7045
    23 Oct 2026, 02:16 UTC

    SCG3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCG3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered88c878fad1fd48a2

    discovery-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication+0.76 p=0.017 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0ebe9344939092ad42bfe69a…
    follows a645dc7ed1cc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7045: SCG3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCG3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.