Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7044

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.321). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7043, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7044
    23 Oct 2026, 02:16 UTC

    SCG3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSCG3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredea26953a7576df62

    discovery-0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    replication+0.60 p=0.089 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.321)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a645dc7ed1cce17e40fe03d0…
    follows a2af29df69c6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7044: SCG3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCG3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.