Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6954

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.64, p 0.064). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6953, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6954
    23 Oct 2026, 00:12 UTC

    B3GLCT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionB3GLCT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered638a8873132b110b

    discovery+0.64 p=0.064 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.64, p 0.064)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    144c55d405eddefdfbc295c4…
    follows 4d7256c3b65b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6954: B3GLCT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for B3GLCT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.