Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6774

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6773, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6774
    22 Oct 2026, 20:13 UTC

    NEIL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNEIL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4c9e9bfa47537b3b

    discovery-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication-0.81 p=0.0075 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8e9433016cd05260dff9670d…
    follows 899f9846d6bf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6774: NEIL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEIL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.