Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6460

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6459, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6460
    22 Oct 2026, 13:09 UTC

    LIN28B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLIN28B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2befe560afc5e733

    discovery+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication+0.49 p=0.177 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    39e50072cee8e72c1c566e44…
    follows 9494cce65298…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6460: LIN28B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.07 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LIN28B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.