Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0646

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.219). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 645, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0646
    17 Oct 2026, 03:20 UTC

    MTMR10

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMTMR10 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8325b2458c094422

    discovery+0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    replication+0.86 p=0.0031 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.219)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c531e35f5c3bf8677e16dc48…
    follows 8553331a9896…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0646: MTMR10 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18), 95% CI +0.19 to +0.83. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.55 to +0.81, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTMR10 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.