Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6266

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.739). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6265, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6266
    22 Oct 2026, 08:53 UTC

    SYT6

    microglia, braak

    predictionSYT6 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7f1325c6b54b0284

    discovery+0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.739)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    342cdc5fd83ccba143ffd8b6…
    follows 7e63550efac5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6266: SYT6 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18) vs -0.23 in microglia. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SYT6 in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SYT6 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 3.2e-4)