Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5985

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5984, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5985
    22 Oct 2026, 02:36 UTC

    CIITA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCIITA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredffa0e056c3fc67b1

    discovery-0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    replication-0.66 p=0.053 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a75115de358427fec3800c1b…
    follows 9845d47e3bef…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5985: CIITA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CIITA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.