Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5786

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5785, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5786
    21 Oct 2026, 22:52 UTC

    LDHA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLDHA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda5484c4abc2c5c36

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.892 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ffaf52b504108023e18c0a93…
    follows 1c343910717d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5786: LDHA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.18, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LDHA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.