Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0563

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.116). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 562, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0563
    17 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC

    GRIN3B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGRIN3B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc5a26b8d5a87d364

    discovery-0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.116)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    22a0c7c418aa21e82e1ba699…
    follows 111c269533c5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0563: GRIN3B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.18. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.61 (p 0.0067, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.70 to -0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRIN3B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.