Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5530

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.77 p 0.016; held-out +0.11 p 0.785). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5529, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5530
    21 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC

    ELAVL3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionELAVL3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered40147efb8e50cb3d

    discovery-0.77 p=0.016 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.77 p 0.016; held-out +0.11 p 0.785)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    d7d98a94813848a8a8e81e90…
    follows 0e64294c638c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5530: ELAVL3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELAVL3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.