Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

ELAVL3

ELAV like RNA binding protein 3

translation score 0.48, read 2026-10-21; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.05 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
group enriched in oligodendrocytes (158 nCPM)1.00
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
4 Parkinson's papers of 1490.79
pathways
Reactome
in no curated pathway0.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 5523

Sealed predictions

  1. ELAVL3 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.37 (p 0.323) → +0.16 (p 0.685)receipt 5531
  2. ELAVL3 in oligodendrocytes, braak-0.77 (p 0.016) → +0.11 (p 0.785)receipt 5530

Swarm cases

receipt 5531: ELAVL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELAVL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 5530: ELAVL3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELAVL3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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