Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0516

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 515, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0516
    17 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC

    DNAJC6

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDNAJC6 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered10ada3de77530a58

    discovery+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a03348c82e291611d25e115…
    follows 784f4025d31f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0516: DNAJC6 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNAJC6 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.