Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0515

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 514, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0515
    17 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC

    PLA2G6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLA2G6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1e5a4ecc5cf7f956

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    784f4025d31fa690f398238f…
    follows e788ef6d880a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0515: PLA2G6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLA2G6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.