Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4638

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.530). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4637, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4638
    20 Oct 2026, 22:01 UTC

    GLI3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGLI3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered072f92b1395b8274

    discovery-0.24 p=0.530 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.795 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.530)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    69111c560bbbd25fdc3ab4d4…
    follows 285780d5ae38…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4638: GLI3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.13, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18) vs +0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GLI3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GLI3 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.63 p 0.026 (needs p < 4.3e-4)