Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4637

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.58 p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4636, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4637
    20 Oct 2026, 22:01 UTC

    GLI3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGLI3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6ea2ba98cfb8a805

    discovery+0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out +0.58 p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    285780d5ae38f1878fda1505…
    follows d33e9f4fb392…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4637: GLI3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18), 95% CI +0.26 to +0.86. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.68 (p 0.0017, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.67 (p 0.0022, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.61 to +0.73, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GLI3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.