Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4448

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.175). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4447, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4448
    20 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC

    P2RX7

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionP2RX7 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd22be8ab8a98eb7b

    discovery+0.50 p=0.175 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.175)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    85ebdeb6eaadefb0312acabe…
    follows b64916da22f0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4448: P2RX7 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for P2RX7 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.