Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4346

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.471). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4345, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4346
    20 Oct 2026, 15:27 UTC

    NFIA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNFIA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered58a5bf6a121dea25

    discovery-0.28 p=0.471 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.471)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    73f522315d4ef0694e54b5c7…
    follows e0ec92fa0116…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4346: NFIA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.05, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.65 (p 0.0037, n 18) vs -0.09 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFIA in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NFIA · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)